M Balance

Trade disputes, Taiwan and Iran war: Can US and China reach a consensus?

Nelson Wong — Thu, 14 May 2026 04:24:18 +0000

As US President Donald Trump prepares to touch down in China for his first visit to the country since the start of his second term, the world is once again watching the uneasy dance between the world’s two largest economies.

On the surface, the agenda reads like a standard superpower summit: trade, technology, geopolitics and regional security. But beneath the polished schedule lies a striking paradox - one that would have seemed unthinkable only a decade ago.

Today, it is China, not the United States, that appears to be carrying the torch for free trade and multilateral cooperation. Meanwhile, Washington - long the global champion of open markets - finds itself entangled in protectionist instincts, trade wars of its own making, and a painful geopolitical quagmire in the Middle East.

When Trump and his team meet their Chinese counterparts this time, the contrasts will be impossible to ignore.

Economically, the White House is expected to press Beijing on two fronts: firstly, to relax export controls on critical rare earth products - materials essential to American manufacturers, particularly those supplying the military-industrial complex - and secondly, to buy more American agricultural goods.

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Rare earth minerals are no ordinary commodity. They power precision-guided missiles, fighter jet avionics, and drone technologies. For years, China’s dominance over rare earth supply chains has been a source of quiet anxiety in Washington.

Now, as US manufacturers scramble to secure their supply chains, Trump finds himself asking China for help - an awkward role reversal for a country that once prided itself on technological self-sufficiency.

Differing expectations

On agriculture, the hope is that China will once again purchase American soybeans, corn and pork in large volumes. That, too, is a familiar script from earlier trade talks. But the unstated irony is clear: the US wants China to open its market, while keeping its own relatively closed to Chinese investments and goods through high tariffs and a protectionist tax regime.

China, for its part, will likely arrive with a very different set of expectations. It wants the US to create a fairer, more reasonable tax environment for Chinese goods, and to welcome Chinese investments without the kind of political scrutiny that has led to blocked deals in recent years. In other words, China is asking the US to live up to the free trade ideals that Washington itself once championed.

Is it not paradoxical that the country lecturing others about open markets today is the same one that has built walls - both literal and figurative - against foreign competition? When it comes to trade, the roles have almost completely reversed.

Why Washington's global dominance is hanging by a thread

On the geopolitical front, the differences are even starker. According to reports and analysts, Trump is likely to ask China to use its influence with Iran to help broker an end to the military conflict between Tehran and the US-Israelicoalition - a conflict initiated by the latter.

Trump’s urgency is understandable. The Iran war has become a draining liability, and with midterm elections looming at home, the White House needs a quick exit strategy.

Voters are weary of endless foreign entanglements. The defence industry may be profiting, but American families are not. To have any hope in the midterms, Trump needs to show that he can end a war, not just start one.

China’s position, however, is rooted in a different philosophy. For decades, Beijing has consistently advocated for world peace based on coexistence and development for all nations on equal terms, without any single country exercising hegemonic control. That principle is enshrined in China’s foreign policy, from the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence to its more recent Global Security Initiative.

Importantly, China also understands and appreciates that nations have different systems, histories and aspirations. That is why Beijing does not impose preconditions when dealing with other countries, including Iran. This non-interventionist approach has earned China a degree of trust in Tehran that Washington cannot match. Whether that trust can be leveraged to end a war, however, is a different question.

China may be willing to facilitate dialogue, but it will not do so as a junior partner following US orders. Any Chinese role in de-escalating the Iran crisis will be on China’s own terms - not as a favour to the White House, but as part of a broader vision for global stability.

Emerging global order

No discussion of US-China relations is complete without addressing Taiwan. It is expected that the upcoming summit will touch upon this most sensitive of issues. The question is whether there will be any joint consensus - or more precisely, whether the US leadership will openly pronounce its disapproval of separatist activities on the island.

Washington has long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity. But ambiguity is a luxury when the situation on the ground is becoming less ambiguous by the day. Certain forces in Taiwan have grown increasingly emboldened, encouraged by congressional visits, arms salesand symbolic gestures from the US side.

China’s position is clear: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and separatist activities of any kind are unacceptable. What Beijing would like to hear from Trump is a clear, unequivocal statement that the US does not support Taiwan independence and disapproves of any separatist activities on the island.

Whether Trump is willing to go that far remains to be seen. Known for not being a traditional foreign policy hawk, Trump has shown a willingness to surprise his own advisers. But any concession on Taiwan would face immediate blowback from Congress and the defence establishment, making it a politically costly move ahead of the November midterms.

Perhaps the most profound observation to emerge from the current state of US-China relations is the quiet death of US hegemony - not because China has replaced it, but because the very concept of a single hegemonic power no longer fits the reality of a multipolar world.

China does not seek to dominate the global order. It seeks to participate in it, to reshape it incrementally, and to ensure that no single country can impose its will on others. That is why China pushes for regional free trade agreements, while the US retreats behind tariffs and sanctions.

If Trump wants China's help on rare earths, agriculture and Iran, he will have to offer something in return

This is not a moral argument. It is a practical one. When the US abandons free trade, it creates a vacuum that other nations - including China - are eager to fill.

Trump’s visit to China is unlikely to resolve all these contradictions. Trade disputes will not disappear after one meeting. The Iran war will not end with a single phone call. And Taiwan will remain a dangerous flashpoint for years to come.

But the summit does offer an opportunity for clarity. It forces both sides to confront a new reality: the old order, with the US as the undisputed leader and China as a junior partner, is gone. What is emerging is something messier, more competitive, and yet - paradoxically - more open to dialogue.

If Trump wants China’s help on rare earths, agriculture and Iran, he will have to offer something in return. If China wants fairer treatment for its investments and goods, it will have to continue making the case that free trade benefits everyone, not just Beijing.

And if the world is lucky, the two leaders might even agree on one thing: that no nation, however powerful, can build a stable future on the ruins of cooperation.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Nelson Wong is president of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies, a non-profit and non-governmental research institution based in Shanghai, China, and an active member of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think-tank. Wong runs a global business and investment consultancy, ACN Worldwide, and is an independent director and audit committee chairman for two public companies listed on Nasdaq.

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M Balance Strategic Meaning Center — Sun, 3 May 2026 18:05:55 +0000

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About

M Balance Strategic Meaning Center — Sun, 3 May 2026 17:54:08 +0000

ABOUT US

Who We Are Mission, Vision & Values People & Governance Legal & Transparency

Who We Are

M Balance is an independent center for strategic meaning-making and project intelligence, registered as Balance Communications Initiatives LLC in Muscat, Oman.

We operate at the intersection of creative strategy, philosophical branding, and cultural systems design to build forward-looking models that serve project-based institutions, corporate ecosystems, and global civil society.

We help visionary leaders articulate philosophies, build symbolic capital, and design projects that extend their influence beyond traditional domains. Our work transforms organizations from administrative machines into systems of cultural meaning and planetary relevance.

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Mission

To create architectures of meaning that transform institutions, communities, and leaders into systems of cultural significance and planetary relevance — bridging strategic thinking with civilizational impact.

Vision

A world in which institutions, cities, and cross-border partnerships are guided not merely by efficiency, but by coherent value systems rooted in culture, memory, and conscience — to build equitable, compatible civilizations.

Core Values

1. Measure

Every project, partnership, and recommendation must correlate with real risks and opportunities. We do not offer vision without accountability.

2. Memory

Historical continuity and cultural context are sources of trust, not obstacles to change. We design architectures that integrate the depth of civilizations, not erase it.

3. Conscience

An internal norm that prevents exploitation and destruction. We will not serve frameworks that undermine cultural dignity, human agency, or ecological sustainability.

4. Planetary Relevance

We design from local agency toward global significance — every project must be able to scale its meaning beyond its immediate context.

5. Human centricity and cultural Integrity

Institutions are only as strong as the people who animate them. We believe in the capitalization of talent — treating human creativity, intellect, and conscience as the most durable forms of strategic capital.

6. Сultural Integrity

True cultural integrity is achieved when systems are designed to elevate human agency rather than diminish it.

7. Long-term Horizon

We design from the ideal future backward. Near-term steps must serve ultimate purpose. Short-termism is not a methodology — it is a failure of imagination.

People & Governance

Leadership & Team

[CONTENT TO BE DEVELOPED]

[Что должно быть в этом разделе: - **CEO / Founding Director** — имя, биография (150–200 слов), область экспертизы, предыдущие должности, публикации - **Board Members** — для каждого: имя, должность, аффилиация, краткое bio (80–100 слов) *(ссылка на текущую страницу Board на mb.id.page: mb.id.page → Board)* - **Advisory Council** (если есть) — список с именами и институциональными аффилиациями - **Core Team** — ключевые специалисты, если есть: philosophers, brand strategists, historians, engineers, lawyers, entrepreneurs Формат: - Фото (профессиональное, нейтральный фон) - Имя + должность - Краткое bio - Ссылки на id.page / LinkedIn *Стандарт: уровень Brookings Institution, Chatham House — полная прозрачность по составу руководства.*]

Governance Structure

[CONTENT TO BE DEVELOPED]

[В разделе Governance достаточно четырёх блоков: 1. Legal status & jurisdiction Кто вы юридически (Balance Communications Initiatives LLC, Muscat, Oman) и под какой юрисдикцией работаете. 2. Board & decision‑making Кратко: кто входит в Board, за что отвечает, как принимаются ключевые решения (strategy, budget, risk). 3. Advisory / Methodological council Если есть — кто помогает выстраивать методологию и качество исследований. 4. Independence & integrity Принципы независимости, управление конфликтами интересов, прозрачность партнёров и источников финансирования. Что должно быть: - Организационная схема (Methodological Core → Project Verticals → Advisory) - Правовой статус и юрисдикция: Balance Communications Initiatives LLC, Muscat, Oman - Политика конфликта интересов - Механизм финансирования и независимости]

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Registered: Muscat, Sultanate of Oman

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Why Oman: M Balance is registered in Muscat as an expression of its commitment to the emerging world of the Primary Civilizational Belt — the broader Eurasian and Gulf ecosystem that connects Africa, the Arab World, South Asia, and East Asia. Our legal base reflects our intellectual geography.

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<a class="btn btn-secondary" href="#who-we-are">Who We Are</a> <a class="btn btn-secondary" href="#mission-vision-values">Mission, Vision & Values</a> <a class="btn btn-secondary" href="#people-governance">People & Governance</a> <a class="btn btn-secondary" href="#legal-transparency">Legal & Transparency</a></div>

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M Balance is an independent center for strategic meaning-making and project intelligence, registered as <strong>Balance Communications Initiatives LLC</strong> in Muscat, Oman.</p>

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Mission, Vision & Values</div>

Mission</div>

Vision</div>

Core Values</div>

<strong>1. Measure</strong>

<p>

Every project, partnership, and recommendation must correlate with real risks and opportunities. We do not offer vision without accountability.</p>

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<strong>2. Memory</strong>

<p>

Historical continuity and cultural context are sources of trust, not obstacles to change. We design architectures that integrate the depth of civilizations, not erase it.</p>

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<strong>3. Conscience</strong>

<p>

An internal norm that prevents exploitation and destruction. We will not serve frameworks that undermine cultural dignity, human agency, or ecological sustainability.</p>

</div>

<strong>4. Planetary Relevance</strong>

<p>

We design from local agency toward global significance — every project must be able to scale its meaning beyond its immediate context.</p>

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<strong>5. Human centricity and cultural Integrity</strong>

<p>

</div>

<strong>6. Сultural Integrity</strong>

<p>

True cultural integrity is achieved when systems are designed to elevate human agency rather than diminish it.</p>

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<strong>7. Long-term Horizon</strong>

<p>

We design from the ideal future backward. Near-term steps must serve ultimate purpose. Short-termism is not a methodology — it is a failure of imagination.</p>

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<em>Why Oman:</em> M Balance is registered in Muscat as an expression of its commitment to the emerging world of the Primary Civilizational Belt — the broader Eurasian and Gulf ecosystem that connects Africa, the Arab World, South Asia, and East Asia. Our legal base reflects our intellectual geography.</p>

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The Shanghai Centre for Rim Pac Strategic and International Studies is M Balance's primary strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific region and the co-host of the inaugural RE:THINK DIALOGUE 2045 event in Shanghai (June 17–19, 2026).

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Participants: 20–25 strategists, visionaries, and practitioners from the Primary Civilizational Belt

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